Robbie Ray’s last month has been fantasy gold. Owners who held on to the Diamondbacks left-hander after his early struggles this season (and last) have reaped the rewards. Over Ray’s last five starts, he has inspired hope in a wasteland of major league starting pitchers by putting up the following line: 37 IP, 0.24 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, 48 strikeouts and only 9 walks.
During that time, he has also posted an unsustainable BABIP (.176) and strand rate (100%), which begs the question: Can fantasy owners trust the new and improved Ray?
Batted Ball Profile
The short answer is yes. The longer one includes one of the largest improvements in batted ball profiles among starters across the league. The chart below highlights the change in Ray’s batted ball profile.
Robbie Ray: Percentage of balls in play at key launch anglesUnder 10° | 10° to 26° | 26° to 39° | Above 39° | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 47.3% | 17.8% | 16.1% | 18.8% |
2016 | 50.1% | 24.1% | 11.2% | 14.6% |
2017 +/- | -2.8% | -6.3% | +4.9% | +4.2% |
Source: xStats.org
Last season Ray gave up the third highest hard hit percentage among qualified starters (36.6%) and the highest BABIP by a considerable margin (.013) at .352. We can chalk some of his 2016 BABIP issues to poor defense or bad luck (he had an xBABIP of .337), but most of it resulted from hard contact at good launch angles for opposing hitters.
In 2017, Ray has improved his batted ball profile across the board. Batted balls at high BABIP and damage-producing launch angles (0° to 26° ) have fallen, while he has improved in launch angles that produce the least worrisome batted balls.
Ray has slightly outperformed his xBABIP of .283 thus far in 2017. His BABIP currently sits at .253, but the higher xBABIP reflects the continuation of his 2016 struggles in April when he posted a xBABIP of .326. His xBABIP in May was .263 and his xBABIP thus far in June is .233.
A major reason for the batted ball turnaround is the 9.1% increase in very low BABIP fly balls above 26°.
Fastball Location
One possible reason for the increase in fly balls and overall improved batted ball outcomes is Ray’s utilization of his fastball. Starting May 20, he has thrown his fastball on 15% more of his pitches (45.9% compared to 60.8%) and his locating of the pitch has changed, too.
![Ray's fourseam fastball heatmap through his May 14 start (left) and after (right)](https://i0.wp.com/www.batflipcrazy.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Screenshot-2017-06-14-at-1.36.49-PM.png?resize=1258%2C581)
Prior to his May 20 start, Ray’s fastball caught a lot of the middle of the plate. Since then, he has located the pitch more consistently high and on the catcher’s left. Ray has taken this approach with both lefties and righties, throwing righties high and inside and lefties high and outside. Batter outcomes on the pitch have changed dramatically over that same period of time.
Outcomes on Fastball Before & After 5/15% of Pitches | Avg Launch Angle | Exit Velo | xwOBA | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Before May 15 | 45.9% | 11.5° | 90.2 | 0.380 |
May 15 - Present | 60.8% | 26.9° | 86.8 | 0.183 |
Source: Baseball Savant (before and after)
Since his May 14 start, Robbie Ray (yes, Robbie Ray!), not only has the lowest xwOBA based on exit velocity and launch angles (skills) but also the lowest wOBA (outcomes) among all starting pitchers, according to Statcast data.
To highlight the difference the location of his fastball has had on his batted ball outcomes, the graphic below compares about an equal number of batted ball outcomes on his fastball before his current five start stretch (left) and during it (right).
![Robbie Ray's launch angle profile before and after his recent five start surge](https://i0.wp.com/www.batflipcrazy.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Screenshot-2017-06-14-at-1.34.14-PM.png?resize=1239%2C684)
Just look at the number of batted balls between -10° and 30° in the past five starts. That is a beautiful image if you’re a pitcher. The large number of fly balls above 30° also highlights the significant increase in launch angle on the pitch (as shown in the previous table) from 11.5° through May 15 to 26.9° since. Across baseball, hitters have a .058 BABIP, a .191 wOBA and a .354 slugging percentage on batted balls above 30°.
Robbie Ray’s New Batted Ball Profile
The batted ball data I shared earlier was cumulative for the entire season. Looking at the changes to his batted ball profile before and after the magical May 15 date sheds more light on the level of change Ray has experienced over his past five starts.
Batted Ball Profile: Before & After May 15Hard Hit % | Soft Hit % | Fly Ball % | BABIP | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Before May 15 | 50.4% | 12.6% | 35.5% | .308 |
May 15 - Present | 28.0% | 28.0% | 46.6% | .176 |
Source: Fangraphs (before and after May 15)
Ray has nearly halved his hard hit rate and more than doubled his soft hit rate. He has increased his fly ball rate to nearly half of his batted balls, which has helped considerably in lowering his BABIP. In short, Robbie Ray looks like a new pitcher.
One concern for any pitcher giving up such a high number of fly balls is home runs. However, Ray’s home run to fly ball rate has dropped precipitously over the same time period because he has limited hard contact on fly balls.
Through May 15, Ray had given up 11 barrels and a hard hit rate of 63.2% on fly balls (worst among regular starters). Beginning with his start on May 20, his hard hit rate on fly balls has dropped to 23.5%, lower than even his soft hit rate on fly balls (35.3%), and he has given up 1 barrel. He’s giving up more fly balls, but limiting the dangerous ones.
What Should We Expect Moving Forward?
Based on the changes Ray has made over his past five starts and the related outcomes, the new and improved Robbie Ray looks like the real deal. Hitters will adjust and his BABIP and strand rate will return to reasonable levels. My optimism comes from the changes in his fastball location and usage and batted ball profile, since quality and type of contact have dogged Ray for so long.
![The improvements Ray has made in quality of contact have not had a negative impact on his elite strikeout skills](https://i0.wp.com/www.batflipcrazy.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Screenshot-2017-06-16-at-12.15.36-AM.png?resize=1060%2C863)
That these changes have occurred and not had a negative impact on Ray’s elite contact and strikeout skills makes a compelling case for Ray as one of fantasy baseball’s top pitchers for the remainder of the season. He will have more ups and down than he has over the past five starts, but I’m a firm believer in the new and improved Robbie Ray.